What the numbers said

One made-up business, five real patterns. The business is a bakery with three locations, but the patterns show up in almost any business with a register, a payroll and a website.

Example business. Made-up numbers, real pattern.

Why does Northgate make less than Westside on the same sales?

What it felt like

“The new location is doing great. Sales are the same as our second store.”

Same sales. Half the profit. Rent is 40% higher and you're scheduling it like the busy store.

Schedule Northgate for the customers it actually gets.

Sales last month Westside 62,000 Northgate 62,000 What was left after costs Westside 11,800 Northgate 5,900
Example business. Made-up numbers, real pattern.

Is payroll creeping up, or does it just feel that way?

What it felt like

“Payroll feels high, but we're busy, so it's probably fine.”

Between 1pm and 4pm, wages went from 28% of sales to 37% in six months. Fewer people come in the afternoon now. The schedule never changed.

Trim the afternoon schedule to match the afternoon customers.

% of afternoon sales spent on wages 28% 37% AprMayJunJulAugSep
Example business. Made-up numbers, real pattern.

Which thing we sell costs more than it earns?

What it felt like

“The celebration cake is our best seller online. It must be doing well.”

It's the top seller online. But its ingredients cost 48% of the price. Everything else is 28% to 34%. Butter went up 22% eight months ago, and the cost sheet was never updated.

Re-cost the cake and raise its price.

Ingredients as % of price Celebration cake 48% Coffee drinks 34% Cookies 31% Croissants 30% Sourdough loaf 28%
Example business. Made-up numbers, real pattern.

We're spending more on Instagram ads. Is it working?

What it felt like

“More people are visiting the website, so the ads must be working.”

Instagram now sends more visitors than anything except Google search. But only 4 in every 1,000 of them place an order. Each of those orders costs over $40 in ads, and the average order is $48.

Cut the Instagram spend and put a little of it into the Google Business Profile.

Website visitors last month Google search 4,500 Instagram ads 1,800 Google Business Profile 1,500 Online orders last month Google search 140 Instagram ads 7 Google Business Profile 68
Example business. Made-up numbers, real pattern.

Is this just January, or is something wrong?

What it felt like

“January is always slow. It'll pick up.”

All three stores dip every January. But Downtown's last three months are 9% below last year, and the other two aren't. Almost all of the drop is weekday afternoons.

Look at what changed near Downtown on weekday afternoons.

Monthly sales, $ thousands Downtown Last yearThis year Westside This yearLast year Northgate This yearLast year AprJanMar
Example business. Made-up numbers, real pattern.

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